Posted by
on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 8:58:43 PM
I'm not so sure why everyone thinks the Republican primary is a five-man race at this point. Yes, there are still five men in the race who have the potential to win at least something in the next few weeks, but I can't imagine anyone outside of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY), Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) winning the nomination. All John Dickerson at Slate sees, however, is chaos:
"So we're back to square one in the Republican Party. Mitt Romney beat
John McCain handily in Michigan, which means there have now been three
major GOP contests and three different comeback winners. At this rate,
Thompson will win South Carolina and Giuliani Florida. The GOP primary
is starting to look like a Pee Wee soccer tournament: Everyone gets a
trophy!"
Very clever, but slow down. Deep breaths. Does anyone actually think that former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) will win South Carolina and that Mayor Giuliani will win Florida? Maybe one of those things happens, but I'd be floored if both happened, and I really don't see either one happening in the first place. That's not to say either is impossible, but both these guys had better shake the lead out yesterday if they want a win in either state.
Right now in South Carolina, RealClearPolitics has Sen. McCain in first at 26.4 percent, followed by former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) with 23.0 percent and Gov. Romney at 14.8 percent. Where's Sen. Thompson? Back in fourth with 10.4 percent. Yes, he doubles Mayor Giuliani's support, which falls below even Rep. Ron Paul's (R-TX), but still. Sen. Thompson needs some fireworks to pull off a surprise by exceeding expectations.
Gov. Romney will probably win Nevada--RCP has him up by 7.0 percent and he thinks he can get it--but since no one else is playing seriously there, it may not mean much. At the same time, however, Gov. Romney would be able to claim that he's gone 3-5 in Iowa, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada, and come in second whenever he didn't "win the gold." Mathematically, that's the best in the field. It may not get him any kind of a bounce in South Carolina, and he may not even compete seriously there, but if he somehow pulled ahead of Gov. Huckabee, then ol' Huck would be dead in the water, given the larger percentages of social conservatives and evangelicals voting in South Carolina than in New Hampshire or Michigan.
Regardless of whether that happens, I think Sen. McCain probably takes South Carolina, which at least puts Gov. Huckabee on life-support, because he needs an outright win. It probably hurts him enough going into Florida that Gov. Romney should be able to slide into third based on that alone, and maybe Gov. Romney sees more movement in the polls if he spends more time and resources in Florida than South Carolina anyway. Another silver isn't out of the question. At that point, I think it we're back where we started the summer, with Rudy McRomney all vying for the top job.
That said, I don't buy into Mayor Giuliani's strategy. The Wall Street Journal seems to think that last night's real winners were Mayor Giuliani and Sen. Thompson because a third candidate won in as many major contests. Okay, but let's remember that Mayor Giuliani finished behind Rep. Paul in Iowa and Michigan, and he's polling below Rep. Paul in South Carolina. Yes, he's got them right where he wants them... Sooner or later people have to start comparing his string of defeats to Gov. Romney's consistent first- and second-place finishes, and that can't look good going into February 5th, especially when he doesn't have the money or the organization to counter it. Mayor Giuliani can't keep that story out of the press forever, and maybe not even until after Florida.
You can play these scenarios out so many different ways, but I'm starting to think the Republican primary is going to boil down to a McCain v. Romney match-up sooner than we realize.